Water Use In New England and New Mexico

Even in the comparatively rain-soaked northeast we’ve got water troubles, as the recent Globe article on overuse of our river resources indicates. Well, I sent that out to my friend John Fleck in Albuquerque, who does a lot of science and drought reporting for the paper there.

He commented that drought isn’t necessarily a specific low level of water – just less than you use. Obviously New Englanders could use a lot less water than they do, but they’re used to not having to worry about it, so they don’t. And then they run out.

Other Southwesterners are likely to be a little less sympathetic. For example, this water-blogger in Tuscon just seems surprised that there aren’t any of the usual water-use policies that everyone’s familiar with in Arizona. I guess those rain-rich New Englanders will have to act like reasonable human beings instead of profligate wastrels. It kind of reminds me of the people who comment on financial articles illustrating families who run into financial trouble even when they make a lot of money.

It’s easy: Just spend more than your income.

Same with water: Don’t pay attention, and you’ll wreck everything.

It’s been awhile since I wrote a strongly worded letter

But I sent one today, to Fred Dekow, M.D., the Associate Medical Director of the Physician Review Unit at Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA:

Fred –
I got your letter today indicating that my fiancee’s emergency appendectomy was probably, but not definitely, covered by her insurance. Thank you for letting us know.

Your letter reminded me of a joke about three medical professionals awaiting entrance to heaven. The first, a surgeon, tells St. Peter that he knows he’s led an imperfect life, but that his service to humanity as a physician and healer merits him some kind of reward. Peter agrees and lets him in. The second, a hospital director, tells St. Peter that he wanted to help people but was afraid of blood, so he went into a field that allowed him to make sure the supplies and staff that did the healing were available at the right time and in the right place. St. Peter says he’s done a reasonable job and lets him pass.

The third is an insurance company executive. He tells St. Peter that his salvation-worthy accomplishment was preventing unnecessary medical care, thereby lowering medical costs and making treatment available to more people. St. Peter says, well, you can come in, but you can only stay for 36 hours. After that, you know where to go.

How the hell do you sleep at night?

Sincerely,
Aaron Weber

A fool and his money…

I’ve been reading a galley of the upcoming book Cheap by Ellen Ruppel Shell, and it’s got me thinking about marketing practices a lot. I don’t agree with all of Shell’s conclusions – she seems to think that discounting and production efficiency is a zero-sum game, for example. But she definitely has keen insight into the psychology of discounting, building on studies of irrational behavior by people like Dan Ariely (whose book I also enjoyed).

At first I didn’t really believe what she was saying about how even savvy consumers are easily duped by the appeal of Bargain Prices, even when it’s not in our best interest. Merchants, she says, override our logical behavior at times of emotional stress, appealing to our irrational desires with discounts from arbitrary reference prices, a sense of urgency, and a feeling of participation in something special. Well, obviously that’s true for some people, but I’m no dummy, and I’m resistant to that kind of trick. Right?

Well, last week, while Bookdwarf was in the hospital having her appendix removed, I got an email from my local wine merchant announcing that Facebook fans would get an exclusive early peek at their best value ever, a heavy discount on a stellar bottle of wine that would be available for one day only. It turned out to be a good value indeed: A $10 bottle on sale for $4 if you bought a case. I did buy a case. Maybe because I was under emotional stress, but mostly because I thought I was saving a bundle, I ordered an extra $100 worth of other stuff I didn’t need. After all, it was also on sale, just not as much. The discounted wine turned out to be pretty good, but I was still unsettled by how effectively the direct-marketing specials plucked at my wallet-strings.

I got another email today that illustrates just how timely Shell’s book is, this one from a market research group, analyzing the ways that different groups of people have responded to the recession. One label in particular caught my eye: “The Ostrich behavior is self-explanatory and irrational. At 9% of the population, they feel unaffected by the financial chill are spending as normally. Some of them are well paid enough to get away with this, but the bulk of this group are in denial… This group is a double edged sword for businesses. In the short term, they’re great for the bottom line, but in the long run, many of them may be forced to raise their heads and lower their spending as the crisis catches up with them.”

Good luck, folks. They’re out to get you.

I Love Factoids

Things I have learned recently:

From the NYT on tattoo history: “The red star trademark of Macy’s department store, we learn, might well have evolved from the tattoo that the store’s founder, Rowland Macy, had on his arm when he sailed on a whaling ship.”

The word bombora is an Australian aboriginal term for places where big, big waves break over offshore rocks. Bomboras represent a navigation hazard and an awesome surfing challenge. (Learned this reading Breath, by Tim Winton, a story of risk, death, coming-of-age, and the origins of big-wave surfing.

Texas governor Rick Perry hates interference from Washington and would consider secession, but not before getting $11 million from the feds to rebuild his mansion.

There’s a strong correlation between Wealth, education, and liberalism, and a converse correlation between poverty, ignorance, and voting for McCain.

Finding a Replacement for Displacement

(Please note: This is a motorcycle geek post. If you don’t care, skip it).

A lot of people dislike the rules of the relatively new Daytona Sportbike class in AMA racing, feeling that it gives an unfair advantage to Buell. After all, the Japanese and British manufacturers are running bikes with around 600 cubic centimeter engines, and the Americans and Italians are running literbikes. And as we all know, there’s no replacement for displacement.

Well, that’s the whole point of Daytona Sportbike, to my mind: There is a replacement, and it’s a combination of more revolutions per minute, lighter weight, and better handling. Buell riders do seem to have a real advantage on the straightaways, but on a curvier track, the Japanese bikes definitely outmaneuver them. And that’s what I really find interesting about the class and about its rules – the way it pits bulk against agility.

You can make a variety of arguments for and against different portions of the rules, and I don’t doubt that they’ll need further tweaking as the bikes develop and the races continue. But on the whole, the Daytona Sportbike class seems to be providing entertaining racing and plenty of fodder for ongoing trash-talking between fans of liter-class and mid-weight sportbikes.

Still some cockeyed optimism in the Boston real estate market

Today’s insane New England real estate listing: Nice Single Fam Home in need of a little TLC…. Close to restaurants and transportation.”

The street address: McGrath Hwy. Well, I suppose it’s technically a highway onramp rather than on the highway itself. Still, it’s kind of brazen Realtor-speak to use “close to transportation” to mean “actually on the highway.” The listing has no picture but look at the google map here and spin it around so you can see the view from the front steps:

The kicker: They’re asking $379,000 for it, although the agent says they’ll consider offers from $349 and up. Bad Realtor! Not only have they misdescribed the house, failed to include any pictures in the listing, and failed to help the seller pick a reasonable sale price, but they’re undermining the seller by announcing they’re interested in lowball offers.

Sales Tax vs. Reform

I’m not one of those knee-jerk tax opponents. I don’t enjoy paying taxes, of course, but I’m well aware that they are the entry fee for civil society. I appreciate the existence of police and fire services, public education, parks, public health, bridges, transit, and so on. I have no intention of moving to New Hampshire to escape “socialism.”

Even when I read about crippling pension and health care costs for state and city agencies, I wonder whether people who rail against them are merely jealous that only government employees get a safety net that everyone really ought to have.

And yet, when every day seems to bring a story like this one, about how the Boston Redevelopment Authority has two full-time model builders with “few regular responsibilities” and salaries that wind up in six figures with overtime, I wonder how the legislature can justify a sales tax increase without any kind of institutional reform. Daniel Gross says that operational efficiencies are the next mine of productivity improvements – maybe we need to look into that. And into firing some people. And probably eliminating a few extra city and state agencies, notably the widely deplored Turnpike Authority and Boston Redevelopment Authority.

It’s the same thing I say every time the MBTA gives me a survey to fill out: I’d gladly pay more for my fare if I thought you weren’t just wasting the money I give you now.

I am an overweight American

I am 5’8″ tall and weigh 165 pounds, which puts my BMI at 25. Healthy normal BMI for men is supposed to be under 25, so my doctor tells me I need to lose weight. Or gain half an inch in height. Either way, really.

I reminded him that the body mass index is only a rough estimate of body composition, subject to a number of limitations and shortcomings, and that the estimate of body composition it provides is itself only a rough estimate of health. I told him I can run five miles at a stretch and that I lift weights regularly. He told me I probably ate too many fatty snacks.

Obviously I went to the gym and asked the fitness expert to measure my body-fat percentage. Her machine told me that it’s 18%. She told me 18% is fine. She also said I should fire my doctor because he doesn’t know the difference between BMI and body composition.

I don’t doubt that obesity is a serious problem. And I’m sure I could be in better shape – my body fat percentage was lower a few years ago, when I was in my 20s and single and exercising every day for an hour or more. But a blind adherence to inaccurate numbers is not going to help things.